For many, climate change is one of those "single issue" concepts which divide people into tribal groups, similar to religious affiliation, beliefs on abortion, gender identity, or political party allegiance. I've spent some time researching climate change and one thing I'll say up front is there is no big "T" Truth here. There are only probabilities, statistics, perceptions of data, and the stories we tell ourselves.
We all fall into tribalism biases, in-group signals which confirm to us we're thinking "correctly." Unfortunately, tribalism is a primitive, simple concept when compared with the modern process of good science, statistical evidence, reason, and logic. On top of that, our media outlets have a history of distorting scientific research for the benefit of political and corporate interests to the point of being meaningless (or even contradictory to the actual findings of the scientists). In addition, science itself can be distorted by funding which sets out to confirm a hypothesis at all costs instead of discovering unbiased conclusions based on evidence and solid, reproducible experimentation.
When it comes to climate science, most of us can't study million year old ice core samples, set up sea water monitoring stations, launch weather satellites, or run massive simulations of the jet stream. All we can do is go off our perceptions of the data presented to us and evaluate the probabilities of the conclusions being true, uncertain, false, deliberately false, or somewhere in-between.
With all that said, I'd like you, as a fellow human being living on this planet, to spend an hour and a half to watch the documentary, Before The Flood. It's not jam-packed with scientific evidence or summaries of abstracts. It's just the story of an actor, traveling the world, learning, interviewing, and discussing something he's clearly passionate about.
Before you say, "Bah, just another dumb celebrity being used as a tool," keep in mind the data itself isn't really working to impact peoples' opinions on climate change. This documentary takes a different approach.
I know many who will argue with me about climate change not being real or it just being a conspiracy, and with each detail they bring up, I refer to sites like skepticalscience.com or I reference YouTube videos I've seen or other source material, and usually they go as far as they can with one detail and then abandon it and move on to another one. I see this often when people are more interested in maintaining their confirmation bias than they are in gaining new understanding.
Let me say this clearly, and I truly hope you hear me:
I don't care about being "right" when it comes to climate change.
What I do care about is understanding the world I live in and, if needed, taking appropriate steps not to screw it up for my future genes.
If you doubt climate change, I'm not asking you to throw away your skepticism, I'm asking you to be skeptical of your own climate change denialist thinking. Don't be primitive and follow a tribe. Be open to learn anything. I've been very skeptical of climate change, and I've also been skeptical of the climate change deniers. Right now, I'm thinking made-made climate change is pretty clearly a thing we should all be considering. If you see my thinking as incorrect, please help me gain understanding in the comments.
And yes, I know Thomas Robert Malthus was wrong, and we didn't experience a Malthusian catastrophe. The population of the world wasn't decimated by famine or disease because we invented things like nitrogen-based fertilizers and penicillin. Our species thrives because of adaptation and technology.
I'm optimistic about the future this time also, but I'm also trying to stay skeptical even of my optimism.
Even if you disagree with the conclusions, it's a really interesting documentary. Give it a watch and let me know what you think.
Edit: Seems the video is no longer free on YouTube. You can still watch it here on the National Geographic website: http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/before-the-flood/videos/before-the-flood/ though you'll need to provide your cable provider information.
If you get held up by the "97% consensus" remark (as many I know are), give this potholer54 video Scientific consensus and arguments from authority a watch.
Yes, I get how governments and corporations will jump at the chance for more power and control. Yes, I have the same concerns when it comes carbon credits and carbon taxes being yet another mechanisms to screw the powerless and funnel profits to the cronies. How we deal with this problem is a separate discussion from the details of the problem itself, and we should not let our views on one confuse the other. First we should agree on the magnitude of problem and what role we personally play in it before we can discuss what steps should be taken towards a solution.
Thanks for watching and commenting.
Image Source: National Geographic
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