In my real life business, I talk to a lot of people about financial matters. The Bitcoin is starting to reach popular awareness. Something like 20% of my clients have asked about bitcoin. Maybe 3% of my clients have actually put money into Coinbase or similar as a get rich quick trade.
In December, they felt like geniuses. Now, not so much.
Of the people who have heard of bitcoin, most have also heard that "it crashed" and "it was hacked." A few are still saying "it's a scam." So most of the lay public that I've talked to have a negative opinion of bitcoin and don't understand the differences between the various currencies, much less the difference between something bitconnect and the broader crypto market.
And then today I'm reading about BitMain releasing an ETH mining ASIC and the miners who bought in at high GPU prices dumping their wares on the market.
Market prices are down 70-90% from the highs a few months ago, sentiment is terrible, miners are leaving... it sounds fantastic!
This is what capitulation looks like. Everything is awful, not a bull to be found.
But I'm still bullish.
Here's my back-of-the-envelope math:
Narrow money is currently around $90 Trillion USD for the world. That means cash, bank accounts, and other things that can be used as cash quickly.
If the vision of a cryptocurrency future with a farmer in Africa buying goats in crypto from his cell phone and a mother in Tokyo buying groceries with her crypto wallet becomes reality, then I think a reasonable valuation for the crypto market as a whole is in the neighborhood of $10 to $20 trillion USD.
Personally, I think the fundamental advantages of crypto over fiat will win out in the long run. The freedom it allows the individual from national and international banking cartels will be recognized over time.
I don't know how much time. I don't know which crypto will win in the market. I don't know how hard the various governments of the world will crack down on crypto when they realize their power to control is being eroded as they lose control of the money supply.
I do know that I expect a general market cap return of 40x to 80x from current levels.
So I'm keeping my crypto. I'm keeping my mining equipment. Because in the long run, it will be having the position and not the price of the position that is important.