There's a growing market for econ and finance contrarian media, a lot of it really just doom and gloom sort of stuff that should count more as entertainment than information. A lot of it is entertaining, and sometimes useful carrying very different signals within all the noise that just isn't present in the mainstream stuff.
Bill McBride of the Calculated Risk blog usually provides a dose of sanity, and for those of us looking to be true contrarians (which means also being a contrarian to the contrarians!), his recent post listing Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful is a nice Thanksgiving-ish treat.
The economy isn't dying and we're not in the midst of a "Greater Depression," at least not yet, and not yet by a long shot. There are large imbalances that could induce a good deal of future instability, but whether they manifests is still very much TBD. We don't know what the future brings, so let's see how things stand right now.
Do take a gander at McBride's better written post, but here are the five reasons:
- The number of new claims for unemployment insurance benefits is at the lowest level in 40 years despite the population being much lower then.
- Job openings are near record highs at about 5.5 million in September.
- Household debt burdens have declined sharply in the last few years and are now at 35-year record lows.
- Gasoline prices are as low as they were just before the Great Recession.
- Wage growth is picking up.
Does this mean taking an ultra long position on stocks? Probably not, but nor does it appear to be time to bet the farm on a massive collapse.
What are your thoughts?
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Rob Viglione is a PhD Candidate in Finance @UofSC with research interests in cryptofinance, asset pricing, and innovation. He is a former physicist, mercenary mathematician, and military officer with experience in satellite radar, space launch vehicles, and combat support intelligence. Currently a Principal at Key Force Consulting, LLC, a start-up consulting group in North Carolina, and Head of U.S. & Canada Ambassadors @BlockPay, Rob holds an MBA in Finance & Marketing and the PMP certification. He is a passionate libertarian who advocates peace, freedom, and respect for individual life.