Ok, Bitcoin dropped below 80k for the first time in almost what seems forever, but its actually been just a four months. Last time Bitcoin was below 80k was November 8, 2024. And in just a week it went from 67k to 90k. The jump from 70k to 80k was especially fast in just a day.
All things considered, this drop from 95k to 78k is not a joke and can shake up a lot of people, both long and short term holders. Short-term holders are especially vulnerable. It is a more than a 20% correction and if we take from the ATH of 107k it’s almost a 30% correction. Alts have been beaten far more with 50% at least, memes down close to zero. All in less than a month. Speaking of testing conviction!
In times like this one must think rationally and make the best possible decision. The best possible one is to be prepared upfront and have a plan and not get stuck in emotional decision. But humans just can’t do that and here we are.
We all know about the Bitcoin cycles. And there seems to be something how the world and nature works with cycles. Everything seems to be going trough cycles. Similar but different. Let’s take a look.
As reminder here are the periods for Bitcoin cycles between halving’s, that happened in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024.
- First cycle from Dec 28, 2012 to July 7, 2016
- Second cycle from July 8, 2016 to May 11, 2020
- Third cycle from May 12, 2020 to Apr 19, 2024
- Fourth cycle from Apr 20, 2024 till now
The first years from 2009 to 2012 are discounted.
BTC Price During Cycles
Here is the chart for the Bitcoin price, split in cycles with number of days after each halving.
This char is in absolute numbers for the price and as we can see the first cycle in yellow is almost non visible. Still, we can draw some conclusions even from here.
The peak in the second and the third cycle happened somewhere around 540 days after the halving. That is somewhere around a year and a half after the halving. Adjusted for this cycle that is somewhere in October 2025. But we can notice also that the third cycle had somewhat of double top and is a bit weird, while the second one had a clear blow of the top peak in one go. Also, this last one cycle we reached a new ATH for the first time before the halving.
Log Scale Price Chart
When we put the cycle prices on a log scale, we get this.
Much better visibility here, especially for the first cycle.
Again, we can see similarities, but obviously each cycle is slightly different. The first cycle had a very early top somewhere around one year after the halving. The second one had a top year and a half after the halving, while the third one had double top, the first time a year after the halving and the second time year and a half after the halving.
What is for sure from this chart is that the top has been in the range of one year to a year and half after the halving. One year is coming in April 2025, while another year and a half is in October 2025.
Price Adjusted Chart (Scaled)
One more what to look at cycles is simply by adjusting the previous price with a coefficient for better visibility to the current price.
The first cycle is with a 528 factor, the second one with 17.6 and the third one with 4. These are price multipliers. Don’t take the price for actual for the previous cycles, apart from the last cycle in red.
From here we can see the top overlaps somewhere around the 540 days after the halving. We can also see the massive growth in price in the first halving that acts as an outlier on the chart. There is also another spike for the first halving around the 1.5 year mark after the halving. This is giving the more weight on the 1.5 year mark.
As already mentioned, there are similarities but also clear differences in the cycles. This is somewhat expected. History rimes doesn’t repeat in exact same patterns.
Possible Scenarios
Always think in multiple scenarios and try to be prepared the best you can. We can obviously not be prepared ideally but still don’t get caught totally out of guard.
These are totally my speculations please don’t take them as a financial advice.
Scenario 1
This is just a healthy pull back with around 25% deep, happened before as seen in the charts. If we stay above the 75k mark, in the next few months, up to the summer, the possibility for a new ATH towards the end of the year in Q4 2025 is high, somewhere around 80%.
This coincides with the other macro economy conditions. Just to note that many of the macro experts are now on opinion that Bitcoin is a global liquidity indicator now and it is pretty much corelated with new money entering in circulation. We are now in Quantitative Tightening phase, FED is not printing money, especially in the last few months, and there are signs that the money printer should come back somewhere at the end of this year, when BTC should also perform well.
Scenario 2
We deep below 75k and even furtherer bellow 70k in the next three months. Bull season delayed and no new ATH this year. Might come next year, maybe few years down the road. But in this scenario, I expect that there will be issues in the wider economy as well. Possible recession, banks collapsing, stocks going down etc. My guestimate game for this is around 20% at the moment.
Scenario 3
Somewthing in between one and two? We get stuck in a crab market up until the end of the year and Bitcoin keeps trading in the range of 75k to 100k. Can’t give a probability here, it might happen as well. Boring market, but at least not that depressing.
Actions to Take
Now this obviously depends on everyone’s personal condition. If you have been seating on the sidelines and have never touched Bitcoin or crypto, everything bellow 80k is a buying opportunity. Just don’t go all at once, do DCA, as it might get lower as to 50k.
If you have a mixed bag of coins, as most of us 😊, and your guessing game is the market will go further down, the first thing to do is lower your position in altcoins. No matter if they dropped 50%, they can always drop another 50% or more. Rotate to BTC if you don’t want to sell for USD. Or maybe you are just in the right spot with the ratio BTC to ALTS in your portfolio and just stick with it.
If you are more than 50%, or like a real degeneric close to 100% in ALTS, then seriously reconsider rotating into BTC. Having some USD reserves is never a bad thing. Don’t go all in crypto, even in BTC and especially not with leverage. All generic stuff advises here 😊.
At the end of the day its all personal decision, alts might rip tomorrow 100% gains, and this might look like a bad advise.
Stay strong!