Market update time - it's now been about 4 weeks since I said a bitcoin rally was imminent and now BTC has risen 909 cny or ~ $134 USD.
We're now sitting at a decision point, right below some major sell resistance.
I've done some super-professional technical analysis and popped my expectations in red and green squiggles in the chart down below.
Okcoin BTCCNY Weekly chart at 11:45pm AEST 01/11/2016
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As you can see, both are fairly bullish expectations. Bitcoin has matured nicely since the last major bubble and there is a lot of uncertainty in world politics right now, so I expect both Bitcoin and Gold to do pretty well for at least the next few months.
Green (Bullish AF) : We break through the resistance, trigger a heap of stop losses and race to the moon - next major resistance is near the previous rally highs at 6200 CNY or ~ $910 USD .
The weekly macd turn, and current political chaos support this theory imo , but alt-coins probably won't enjoy this..
Red (Bullish consolidation) : We fail to break through resistance for a few weeks, buyers lose confidence and we fall back to previous support levels to consolidate. I don't expect major panic sells (except on okcasino futures), going to around 4240 cny or ~ $620 USD at the lowest before building support and continuing the trend in a few months.
The Stoch RSI and ChangeMO support this theory imo, and alt coins will probably rally ...
I've been looking around for a mature alt-coin to try and diversify some of my bitcoin into if the resistance is too strong and it looks like its taking the red consolidation path.
After a look around a heap of long term alt-coin charts I'm 90% convinced I should buy some cheap bitshares soon.
Bitshares / Bitcoin Weekly Poloniex chart
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I don't have any experience with Bitshares yet , but I see these positive signs :
- We are just above the monthly S1 Support at
0.00000518btc - We are also sitting above the yearly S1 Support at
0.00000425btc - Stochastic RSI is almost on the floor and beginning to turn back up
- Bollinger Band width is at levels not seen since March 2015 , approaching its all time low
I also recently spotted that there are major updates to the underlying tech coming, and they can be ported to bitshares or any other graphene chain.
This may not have been priced into bitshares yet, so once I think Bitcoin is consolidating I'll be grabbing some :)