Why post this ?
Steem is about to bring a whole new user base to cryptocurrencies in a way we haven't seen before. People that have no experience in trading or crypto can suddenly end up in control of big money. Not only that, they're being thrown in the deep end with STEEM, STEEM Power, STEEM Backed Dollars AND Bitcoin all at once.
I'm too new to the STEEM/STEEM Power/SBD markets to even begin to speculate there, but I know Bitcoin - we go way back. I have no interest anymore in short timeframe trading or scalping, but I feel like an occasional long term update could be useful to some :)
DiscIaimer: I am not a financial adviser or expert in anything - I'm just a guy that's been watching this market for ~6 years.
That's nice - Gimme the chart already
Heres my Okcoin BTC/CNY Weekly Candle chart
You can have a copy of your own to modify and add your own indicators etc here -
https://new.tradingview.com/chart/ZqO6cgAw/
These are the indicators I'm using, linked to the investopedia definitions for each:
- Yearly Pivot Points
- Stochastic RSI
- ChandeMO
- Bollinger bands layered at different settings
- Algokids MACD Bollinger Band indicator v1
- "Candles" Candle Pattern Identification script.
- EMA enveloper indicator by lazybear
- Liberal use of trendlines, marking support & resistance points in ~USD for reference
So what do I think
In my opinion: We need a little bit more consolidation, weekly momentum indicators are reversing down and we're still coming down from the supply-halving hype.
We've only just had a halvening-driven bull run all the way from previous consolidation on the yearly support pivot of 2400 CNY / 400 USD , smacked straight into the R1 pivot of 3800 CNY / 560 USD where we consolidated for only 2 weeks before bursting up all the way to our R2 pivot at 4800 CNY / 700 USD.
Hopium held us just on top of the pivot for 2 weeks before dumping back to R1 again.
We've since climbed and sat right at the halfway point between R1 and R2 , and it feels like we're at a decision point again.
Indicators say downish, but there's not really that far to go before we run into good support again.
What I'd like to see for healthy bitcoin:
A retest of R1 resistance point as new support would be good, grind down until we find real support again and build a solid platform for the next launch ..
Worst case short term IMO:
The lowest I would expect to see would be a dump down to the previous resistance breakout point of 3000 CNY, just above the pivot. I would be expect much support in this range and above that any drops would be quickly bought back up by new longs and short closing . It also lines up with my earlier orange support trendlines from before the breakout.
Bull Case:
Stoch RSI is nearly oversold and pinching. Theres a higher white trendline that would have us hold R1 as support. Steem adoption is out of control and mainstream media attention is inevitable. I can't begin to speculate how high we could go once a support floor is established..
TLDR: Probably down a bit, then sideways, then continuing on to new all time high's within about 3 months. Sooner if steemit reopens invitations.
Bonus Background and nostalgia
My first BTC purchase was right at the top of the $30 "bubble". The whitepaper made me tingly, so I transferred off the cash I could to MtGox's Japan account and made my first ever foray into the fascinating world of crypto. The transfer took days, mtgox constantly fucked up and I ended up stupidly using a market order and I got immediately smacked in the face as the bubble popped and I watched a good chunk of my buying power evaporate in moments.
It didn't matter - the fire of curiosity was blazing and I knew there was something about this odd little experiment that just might change the world in a huge way..
All these years later I've now traded bitcoins, altcoins, securities, options and index funds. I've learned more about cryptography, blockchains, economic theory, human psychology and life then I ever imagined I would. I've been ripped off and scammed countless times, but somehow still came out of it all on top. I twitch a bit now, but it was worth it ;)
Should I continue these ?
I have maaany more charts I track, with their own techniques and indicators all for different timeframes and purposes. I also have a lot of crazy stories from being around through the earliest wild-west days of bitcorn too. I just don't know what sort of content steem cares about . Or do I just focus on developing tools to go with my steem domain addiction ..
Let me know!